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The eagerly awaited visit to Ankara took place yesterday, 19 October, and the new President, Tufan Erhürman, met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan at Beştepe.
If I were to say at the outset what I will say at the end, I would say that the Ankara trip was, in my opinion, a success.
The treatment, hospitality and even more that previous TRNC Presidents received was also offered to Tufan Erhürman. I guess the last Turkish Cypriot leader to be officially welcomed with his picture on the streets of Ankara was Rauf Denktaş!
The main focus of the visit, which featured a state ceremony and images that were entirely in line with diplomatic protocol, was of course the messages that would be delivered afterwards. I would like to focus more on those, but in doing so, I intend to make a more general reading of events rather than splitting hairs and reaching definitive conclusions.
For example, it is possible to infer from the carefully chosen words of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s statement to the press after the meeting at Beştepe that he still maintains his position on a two-state solution. However, we have not heard him say, as he has stated many times before, that ‘the federation model is dead’.
The closest he has come to saying this is: “You cannot dry today’s laundry with yesterday’s sun. Trying to dig a well with a needle, using the memorised formulas of the past will get us nowhere.”
However, the following sentence in these statements is actually a direct message to the Greek Cypriots: “I hope that in the coming period we can see the same courage and will to find a solution from the other side as demonstrated by the Turkish Cypriots. To make this possible, we will continue our constructive, result oriented, fair and humane approach together with the Turkish Cypriot people.’
These words do not, of course, mean that we will support a federal solution (if such a will emerges), but the words he uses, “Today, we are faced with a very different international situation,” actually create a basis for the solution models Erhürman described during the election period, which cannot be directly called federation. the kind that will create a basis for the solution models described by Erhürman throughout the election period, which cannot be directly called federation.
On the other hand, Erhürman’s statements at Beştepe do not directly point to a solutio based on a federation model either. His closest emphasis is on political equality. After all, the expression ‘political equality’ relates to a federal solution. The phrase ‘two equal founding partners’ is also a reference to a federal solution.
In short, while Erdoğan continues to uphold the two-state solution policy he has pursued for the last five years—albeit at a more moderate level than before—Erhürman also continues to uphold his own solution perspective, namely federation, in a vague and constructive manner.
In this case, the positions of the two leaders are diametrically opposed, based on extreme caution and respect, but they seem to have reached a compromise based on mutual sensitivity, rather than burning bridges.
I believe the name of this compromise is modality.
As is well known, Erhürman, who presented his six-point new modality at the Socialist International meetings he attended in New York in September 2024, has also continued his election campaign based on this formula.
In summary, the most controversial part of this new formula, which includes the acceptance of agreements reached so far, arbitration, a timetable, and the acceptance of political equality and effective participation, is the clause stating that ‘in the event of a breakdown in negotiations, there will be no return to the same status quo.’ This has been one of the most debated topics in the Greek Cypriot press in recent times.
Erhürman, in his statement upon returning from Ercan, described the related debates as “good to discuss, even if from the wrong angle,” but in my opinion, this formula definitely guarantees something that all parties want: time!
First and foremost, Erhürman needs time to settle into his position, build his team, and strengthen his network.
Although he says, “I am ready to start negotiations tomorrow,” the Greek Cypriot leader also needs time, and this modality actually allows for that.
How? As follows:
Erhürman’s words at Beştepe, where he said, “These are not preconditions, they are necessities,” are not accepted by the Greek Cypriots. In other words, the Greek Cypriots, especially regarding the ‘price’ part, i.e. the issue of ‘not returning to the status quo,’ interpret it as the ‘recognition of the TRNC.’ They are not wrong.
However, during the election period, Erhürman described this price as the lifting of isolation, or 3D [Editor’s note: refers to direct trade, direct connection and direct flights], rather than recognition. Yet, we all know that if negotiations for a federal solution begin and collapse again, the federal model, which is the only formula for the reunification of the island, will come to an end forever.
When this modality was first mentioned, I wrote in an article that I saw it as a ‘great potential danger,’ but I also said that the other items were acceptable.
Indeed, the timetable, arbitration and focus on results are already what we need.
There is no point in discussing political equality because it is impossible to talk about a federal solution without it. How it will be achieved, i.e. the sharing of power and governance, is definitely a matter for negotiation, and there is a lot of confusion on this issue.
Therefore, the priority for the Republic of Cyprus, which will assume the EU presidency on 1 January 2026, is this presidency period, which it will maintain prior to the negotiations.
Given this situation, it is not unrealistic to think that they will not accept Erhürman’s conditions in order not to start negotiations, but that this will be a kind of refusal to gain time and consult, rather than a complete rejection.
I believe that Christodoulides’ recent statement, “Our presidency could be a positive thing for Turkey-EU relations; Turkey should be encouraged to find a solution,” actually refers to this. This statement is undoubtedly a clear call for bargaining.
Time is also very valuable for Turkey, which is pursuing these negotiations to seek strategic gains for a solution, geopolitical privilege in the Eastern Mediterranean region, and, of course, commercial gains.
It is equally valuable for Greece, which is beginning to put its relations with Turkey back on track.
In this context, the ‘very different circumstances’ that Erdoğan pointed to after yesterday’s meeting can be seen as the first sign of the dizzying developments expected in 2026. That is precisely what the author of these lines believes.
Of course, we do not yet know what exactly was discussed at yesterday’s meeting.
It may take time for the information that leaks out to be collated and put into a meaningful context.
Now, our eyes are on the introductory meeting that Erhürman announced he would have with the Greek Cypriot leader in the second half of next week upon his return from Ercan.
Well, our dear professor has stated that ‘too much meaning should not be attached’ to that meeting, but there is still the potential for some of the intentions to come to light.
While on the subject, I would also like to say that I found Erhürman’s dignified demeanour, his extremely careful choice of words, and his poker face during the press conference particularly valuable.
It would not be wrong to say that the photographs taken and published while walking to the ceremony venue represent the rebirth of the Turkish Cypriot leadership, which has long presented a subdued and faded image, and that they truly convey an image of respect.
Beyond what I say, I believe it is suffice to look at the comments sections on social media regarding the relevant photographs.
In short, the Ankara visit, which we discussed until yesterday, which we attributed a thousand meanings to because it was delayed, and which I myself commented on as “are we being treated to a political fix?”, has been safely navigated and, so to speak, the ‘ship’ has set sail.
The captain of our small ship, caught between the giant tankers and aircraft carriers of an age-old international problem, is now on his way.
The skill lies in navigating this small ship through every storm and safely reaching the harbour of resolution…
This article was originally published on 14.11.2025
