CYPRUS PROBLEM: WHAT HAPPENED IN 2025 AND WHAT TO EXPECT IN 2026
If there’s anything we can say about the Cyprus problem and 2025, it’s that the year that’s just passed was—relatively speaking—a “busy” one. Tripartite meetings, two expanded conferences, and a fair few personnel changes: the appointment of Holguín, the election of Tufan Erhürman, a new UN Special Representative, a new head of the peacekeeping force, and more besides.
2025 undeniably brought a flurry of activity. That doesn’t mean it delivered anything substantive. Still, it’s hard to dismiss it as another “dead year” for Cyprus—unlike the ones that came before.
For the first time since 2017 and the wreckage of Crans-Montana, 2025 generated momentum, hope (however slight), and the prospect of progress (however remote).
Whether that hope and those prospects will crystallise into anything positive will become clear in 2026—though the odds aren’t exactly encouraging, given Ankara’s continuing hard line on Cyprus and its relentless refrain that a two-state solution is the only solution.
A tripartite meeting between the two leaders and the UN Secretary-General is expected by the end of January 2026, along with the next expanded conference involving the three guarantor powers.
At the same time, 2026 brings two events that will have their own role and weight in shaping the climate: Cyprus’s EU Council Presidency, which concludes at the end of June 2026, and parliamentary elections on 24 May.
On the Cyprus problem, history has taught us one phrase: “So far, yet so near.”
In other words, an unexpected convergence of circumstances can trigger a cascade of developments that bring you within a whisker of a solution—and just as quickly, that momentum can vanish as suddenly as it appeared.
The core of any Cyprus settlement hinges first and foremost on the chapter of Security and Guarantees. And as long as Ankara insists it must retain a say and a role in the post-solution era—through the preservation of its guarantees and its occupation army—no solution can be found.
Everyone knows this. Everyone acknowledges it. That is the framework for Cyprus in 2026.
What follows is a month-by-month account of the significant events on the Cyprus problem throughout 2025.
January 2025—a year ago—opened with the Cyprus problem framed by the slogan “The only solution is two states,” courtesy of Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan during his illegal visit to the occupied areas (8–9 January).
On 20 January, President Nikos Christodoulides and Ersin Tatar met at the residence of the UN Secretary-General’s Special Representative in Cyprus, Colin Stewart, where the discussion focused on opening crossing points.
On 10 February, the President met with UN Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo at the Presidential Palace, with discussions centred on the long-anticipated expanded conference on Cyprus.
In early March (5 March), UN Secretary-General spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric announced that the informal expanded conference on Cyprus would take place at UN offices in Geneva on 17–18 March, bringing together the two Cypriot leaders and the three guarantor powers: Greece, Turkey, and the United Kingdom.
17 and 18 March: The expanded conference took place in Geneva, attended by the UN Secretary-General, the President, the Turkish Cypriot leader, Greek Foreign Minister Giorgos Gerapetritis, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, and UK Minister of State for Europe Stephen Doughty. The conference concluded with the UN Secretary-General announcing his decision to appoint a personal envoy to prepare the next steps on Cyprus, whilst also announcing another such meeting for late July. Worth noting: representing the EU at the Geneva conference was Julia Bertetzolo, head of the European Commission’s Cyprus settlement unit, whilst Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa sent a joint letter to UN Secretary-General António Guterres regarding the EU’s desire for—
April 2025 opened with yet another meeting involving Nikos Christodoulides.
On 2 April, the two leaders met, and UN spokesperson Dujarric announced progress on four of six issues, calling on the leaders “to capitalise on the positive momentum and build trust between the two leaders.” A joint communiqué was issued, announcing agreement on a technical committee for youth, demining, the environment, and cemeteries.
On 15 April, the President announced that the next meeting with Turkish Cypriot leader Ersin Tatar would take place on 5 May.
On 2 May 2025, UN Secretary-General António Guterres announced the appointment of María Ángela Holguín of Colombia as his Personal Envoy on Cyprus.
On 3 May, the “presidential inauguration” took place in the occupied areas in the presence of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who repeated that any solution must take account of realities and that a two-state solution is the only solution. Erdoğan’s remarks triggered a storm of reactions, with the President declaring that “the realities are that there has been an illegal occupation in Cyprus for 50 years,” whilst the Foreign Ministry issued a statement noting that the character being given to the Turkish President’s illegal visit was entirely in line with the escalation of Turkish rhetoric about a “two-state solution,” whilst simultaneously revealing Turkish intentions for complete control over the occupied areas of Cyprus.
On 5 May, the President met Ersin Tatar and received three flat “No”s from the Turkish Cypriot leader: no to opening crossing points, no to the “Pyla plan,” and no to treated water from the Mia Milia plant. Fifty per cent of the meeting was consumed by Ersin Tatar’s complaints about arrests in the Republic of Cyprus for cases of usurpation of Greek Cypriot land in the occupied areas, the President stated after the meeting.
On 12 May, the mission of the UN Secretary-General’s Personal Envoy on Cyprus, María Ángela Holguín Cuéllar, officially began.
On 14 May, the European Commission announced the appointment of Johannes Hahn as special envoy of Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Cyprus issues. According to the Commission, Hahn would report directly to von der Leyen and “contribute to the settlement process within the UN framework in close cooperation with the UN Secretary-General’s Personal Envoy on Cyprus, María Ángela Holguín Cuéllar.”
On 16 May, President Christodoulides spoke with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on the sidelines of the European Political Community summit in Tirana, Albania. President Christodoulides told President Erdoğan that for real progress to be made—both on Cyprus and in EU-Turkey relations—they needed to speak to each other directly. For his part, the Turkish President said he favoured dialogue and was interested in EU-Turkey relations.
On 24 May, the UN Secretary-General’s Personal Envoy on Cyprus, María Ángela Holguín Cuéllar, met with the President in Nicosia and stated that her goal was to achieve tangible progress on all the confidence-building measures (CBMs) agreed in March at the informal expanded conference in Geneva.
On 30 May, the President met again with the UN Secretary-General’s Personal Envoy on Cyprus, María Ángela Holguín, who spoke of the leaders’ commitment to progress before the expanded meeting in July.
On 9 June, the President spoke with the UN Secretary-General on the sidelines of the Ocean Conference in Nice, confirming the shared commitment to a successful outcome at the new expanded conference on Cyprus and their efforts towards the resumption of negotiations.
On 1 July, the UN Secretary-General’s Personal Envoy, María Ángela Holguín, travelled to London to meet UK Minister of State for Europe Stephen Doughty.
On 2 July, Holguín went to Brussels to meet European Council President António Costa and the European Commission’s special envoy on Cyprus, Johannes Hahn.
On 3 July, a National Council meeting took place where political leaders were briefed by President Christodoulides on preparations for the New York expanded meeting. It was decided—mainly for practical reasons—that they would not accompany him, but would remain in constant contact.
16 July: An informal expanded conference on Cyprus took place in New York. Participants included President Christodoulides, Turkish Cypriot leader Ersin Tatar, Greek Foreign Minister Giorgos Gerapetritis, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, and UK Minister of State for Europe Stephen Doughty, accompanied by British High Commissioner to Cyprus Michael Tatham.
17 July: The conference concluded, with UN Secretary-General António Guterres describing the New York meeting as constructive and announcing that another informal meeting in the same format would take place later in the year.
On 20 July, five Greek Cypriots who had visited their properties in the occupied areas were illegally arrested by occupation authorities.
4 August: The UN Secretary-General’s Special Representative and head of the UN peacekeeping force in Cyprus, Colin Stewart, departed.
2 September: UN Secretary-General António Guterres announced his intention to appoint Senegalese diplomat Khassim Diagne as the new Special Representative and Head of the UN Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP). In a letter to the President of the Security Council, Guterres noted that Diagne “succeeds Canadian Colin Stewart, who has completed his mission,” expressing “gratitude for Colin Stewart’s dedication and effective leadership.”
16 September: The UN Secretary-General spoke about Cyprus. “I am not pessimistic, I am not simply optimistic, I am determined to restart negotiations,” Guterres said when asked about Cyprus during a press briefing ahead of High-Level Week at UN headquarters.
On 23 September, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan appeared once again in provocative form, speaking from the podium of the UN General Assembly about a two-state solution.
On 24 September, President Christodoulides, addressing the 80th UN General Assembly, called on Erdoğan to follow the path of responsibility towards ending the occupation and reunifying Cyprus.
On 27 September, a tripartite meeting took place in New York between the President and Turkish Cypriot leader Ersin Tatar, with the UN Secretary-General conveying the message that the goal was to restart negotiations on Cyprus from where they left off at Crans-Montana.
19 October: “Elections” took place in the occupied areas, with Tufan Erhürman elected as the new Turkish Cypriot leader.
21 October: The UN Secretary-General commented on Cyprus following a question from the Cyprus News Agency after the election of the new Turkish Cypriot leadership, with António Guterres noting that further progress on Cyprus was feasible if both sides remained committed, and “encouraging both sides to seize the new momentum.”
22 October: The new UN Secretary-General’s Special Representative and Head of UNFICYP, Khassim Diagne, arrived in Cyprus, stating in his first remarks that he looked forward to working with all parties.
29 October: Ten days after Tufan Erhürman’s election, the first telephone call took place between the President and the new Turkish Cypriot leader. The President had attempted to contact him on election day itself, after the official results were announced, but was unable to do so.
20 November: The first meeting took place between the President and the new Turkish Cypriot leader, Tufan Erhürman, at the residence of UN Special Representative Khassim Diagne. Erhürman set out four conditions for resuming negotiations: (1) the Greek Cypriot side must accept political equality and stop treating it as part of the negotiation; (2) a timeframe must be set for the talks so they are no longer open-ended and don’t continue indefinitely without result; (3) issues agreed in the previous round of talks must not be reopened; (4) there must be guarantees for the outcome of the talks even if they collapse, so Turkish Cypriots don’t end up trapped in the status quo.
11 December 2025: The second meeting between the two leaders took place, resulting in a joint communiqué clarifying that “political equality is as defined in United Nations resolutions.”
15 December: Holguín estimated that a tripartite meeting would take place at the end of January 2026, with an expanded meeting (5+1) possibly in early March.
This article was first published on 04.01.2026
Source: CYPRUS PROBLEM: WHAT HAPPENED IN 2025 AND WHAT TO EXPECT IN 2026