I hope Antonio Guterres will prove us wrong with his presence here. And I hope the conclusion of his visit won’t be accompanied by the familiar “good luck to the northerners and the southerners”…
We are just a few hours away from the arrival of the UN Secretary-General in Cyprus. And it is a fact that Guterres’s direct involvement creates a sense of optimism regarding the possibility—if nothing else—that the stagnant waters might shift a little. There is, of course, also the ambitious hope for a settlement plan by the end of the year.
But what is the reality? Conditions do not seem ripe for anything spectacular. The interplay between the Cyprus issue and Euro-Turkish relations, while creating momentum, has not yet been codified in terms of the give-and-take that must take place. We are still at the stage of figuring out who will give what first. The ambiguity that exists at this level does not seem capable of leading to a “grand deal” that would also include the Cyprus issue.
At the same time, there is a very significant factor that leaves little room for optimism. And this has to do with the internal situation of the key players.
The situation is simple:
Cyprus has now entered the pre-election period—behind the scenes, for the time being. President Christodoulides’ maneuvers—both regarding the cabinet reshuffle and his efforts to keep by his side the forces that will form the core of his new candidacy—indicate that the focus is now on the 2028 election. Political parties are moving in a similar direction, led by DISY, where the race for the nomination has long since begun.
But it is not only Cyprus that is in an election season. The situation is even more intense in Greece, where elections are scheduled to take place in the spring of 2027, though there is a strong possibility of early elections. Kyriakos Mitsotakis, who must contend not only with the “left-wing opposition” but also with the “nationalist” Antonis Samaras, will have little room for maneuver when it comes to the compromises that will be required should serious developments arise.
But let’s also turn to Turkey, which is also holding elections in 2028. Tayyip Erdoğan, who seeks a third term as president, can achieve this only if the National Assembly passes a resolution calling for early elections. Otherwise, he is not eligible to run again. Given these circumstances, and with the pressure he is facing from his allies, the Grey Wolves, as well as intense criticism on national issues from the opposition, the Turkish President is unlikely to be willing to make the necessary concessions.
Finally, elections will be held in the fall in the occupied territories as well.
Antonio Guterres may be fully willing to leave a legacy before stepping down as Secretary-General. The problem, however, is that those directly involved seem to have other priorities at the moment. And, in this way, the prospect of a “big deal” gives way to a “shadow theatre” that creates the impression of supposed movement, while everyone maintains their positions and, together, focuses on what truly interests them—which, at the moment, is not a solution to the Cyprus problem.
May António Guterres prove us wrong with his presence here. And may the conclusion of his visit not be accompanied by the familiar “good luck to the northerners and the southerners”…
