THEORIES ABOUT OUR REAL POPULATION
In order to make any plans for the future of a country, the most important data you need is the population but unfortunately in our country, information about the real population continues to be disguised.
Rather than relying on the limited information provided, we try to estimate our population by using such data as the number of mobile phone users, the number of vehicles, and the daily consumption of bread as reference points.
Most recently, Prime Minister Ünal Üstel stated that the projected population is 590,000.
According to data shared by the Statistical Institute in March, the latest population census conducted in the TRNC on 4 December 2011 showed a total population of 286,000. Based on the 2023 Year-End Projected Population, the total population was calculated to be 476,000. Deaprting from this, if we have reached the figure announced by the Prime Minister, we see that the projected population has increased by approximately 20% in two years.
When foreign students, soldiers, and undocumented residents are added to the projected population of 590,000, we can reach the total population living in the country.
There are 102,000 students enrolled in universities. Since 13,000 of these are citizens of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) and are included in the projected population, the total population, including the remaining number of students, amounts to 680,000.
Turkish President Erdoğan stated in a speech three years ago that there are approximately 40,000 Turkish troops in Cyprus.
When we add the number of 40,000 troops, we reach the current legal population of the TRNC. This indicates that the population is now 720,000.
Since we cannot estimate the number of undocumented residents and no data is available in this regard, we have no choice but to make estimations based on different sorts of data.
Since June 2023, the number of voters has gone up by 5,490… We have reached a total number of 215,611 voters. This figure includes both those who have reached the voting age and also new citizens. When we compare the rates of increase for voters between the north and south of Cyprus, we see a clear numerical surge in the North. This shows that either the population is the same, or that the number of citizens granted citizenship in the TRNC has amounted to these figures. According to data from the Ministry of Transport, the number of registered vehicles on the roads has hit 436,000 by the end of 2024. The shortage of public transportation in our country makes it necessary for every household to own at least one vehicle. Assuming that each household has two vehicles and each household has four people, we can reach the figure of over 800,000, excluding undocumented migrants.
The number of mobile phone users is also used as a data point to estimate the country’s population. We know that the number of subscribers, which was 955,000 in June 2023, has gone up to 1 million, two years on. Today, the fact that many individuals have multiple phone lines makes it necessary for us to bring the number of individual subscribers down. However, when we take into account that the elderly and children do not use phones, the view that the 1 million figure is in line with the number of population becomes stronger.
While the total number of 720,000 stands as an extraordinary surge in view of the past 10 years, the main question remains as what the actual population is if we were to include the number of people who live in the country illegally. Unfortunately, as we observe a big number of African and Asian workers working illegally, we can suggest that many Africans who come to our country as students are also living illegally.
When I asked 10 people for their guesses regarding our real population before writing this article, the answer I received from all of them was “we are around 1 million.”
Based on the official figures announced and the data I have shared above, I can conclude that there is an excessive number of undocumented migrants living in our country. According to the data, the reason why none of the plans, or calculations made for the country have been accurate is that the big number of undocumented individuals has been overlooked.
This article was originally published on 17.07.2025