By ΕΛΛΗΝΙΚΑ (GREEK) TÜRKÇE (TURKISH)
If the American moves are aimed at permanent use of Cyprus as a military base for control of the Middle East, then one should await Turkey’s response with interest
Did the United States send a substantive message on the Cyprus problem during the Biden-Christodoulides working meeting at the White House last Wednesday? Judging from statements and communiqués, one could argue that in Washington the US President expressed a wish for a solution to the Cyprus problem on the basis of the BBF, which ties in with US strategy in the Eastern Mediterranean. As we all know, some wishes come true, some do not, depending on how and where certain developments occur.
In 2014
Ιt should be noted that the messages sent by outgoing US President Joe Biden over the last 10 years have been and continue to be consistent over time. In 2014, as Vice President of the US administration, he came to Cyprus and spoke convincingly to all concerned about the need for a solution to the Cyprus problem. He pointed out the huge economic benefits of a solution. He described in detail the geopolitical importance of the Republic of Cyprus, even giving it a role in creating a natural gas transit axis in the region. He promised the descent of giants in natural gas extraction, with Exxon initially and Chevron subsequently coming to our country.
In 2014 there were real hopes for a solution to the Cyprus problem, as all parties involved in Cyprus, the United Nations, the guarantor powers and the European Union, seemed ready to move forward. Particularly after the election of Mustafa Akıncı to the leadership of the T/Cs, optimism was reinforced, until of course the collapse of everything in Crans-Montana. Who was responsible for this? The entire West and the United Nations supported a solution to the Cyprus problem, but the Greek Cypriot community, with Nicos Anastasiades as leader, Nikos Christodoulides as Minister of Foreign Affairs, Nikos Kotzias as erratic advisor and the Russian Ambassador Osadchiy as the country’s ever-present governor, moved on a different wavelength. Cyprus at that time was a member of the EU but in practice belonged to a different sphere of influence. In our country, the Cyprus problem was controlled by Lavrov, who did not want a Western-style solution in Cyprus. In the economy, Putin’s Russian oligarchs had the upper hand, as did some law and accounting firms and of course Nicos Anastasiades and his team, who all became multi-millionaires. They regulated the issuing of passports through the Council of Ministers, they coordinated the real estate development through a close circle of contractors, relatives and friends.
All these feeble-minded people couldn’t see the big picture. The Biden package of 2014, which was a solution to the Cyprus problem combined with the creation of an energy arc involving Israel-Egypt-Greece-Cyprus-Turkey, could have made trillions of dollars in turnover for the benefit of the peoples of the region, but also for the G/Cs and the T/Cs. Unfortunately, the Anastasiades team chose a turnover of $7 billion to issue 6,000 passports, mostly to Russians, Chinese and some international crooks – shared among some narrow-minded and mostly self-serving politicians and developers. The quote of a person in Anastasiades’ inner circle to this writer is characteristic: “What, are we going to solve the Cyprus problem so that Turkish Cypriots can also issue passports?”
In 2024
Joe Biden last Wednesday sent us a similar message: A solution to the Cyprus problem, the development of our energy partnership, the use of Cyprus as a platform for the transfer of humanitarian aid and as a base for the stationing and movement of troops. Of course, compared to 2014, things have become even more complex. What are the current facts?
* In 2014, Cyprus was standing in two boats, with the Kremlin having a huge influence on Nicosia. In 2024, Cyprus is in a phase of derussification. Through the imposition of sanctions, Putin’s companies and oligarchs have been removed from Cyprus, and the National Guard is gradually being relieved of Russian armaments. Cyprus’s credibility in Western circles has risen sharply as a result. A healthy number of Cypriots of Russian origin remain in Cyprus, who make multiple contributions to the Cypriot economy and who in the future are likely to define a new, qualitative relationship with the Russian Federation.
* In 2014, Turkey was in the solution game, accepting Akıncı’s submission of a map at Mont Pelerin in 2016 and starting discussions on the abolition of guarantees in Geneva and Crans-Montana. Today it appears to be harsher, introducing the condition of sovereign equality and supporting Ersin Tatar who talks about a 2-state solution. Of course, if favourable reasons are present, Turkey could move unpredictably and unexpectedly.
* In 2014, the implementation of the energy arc sounded more realistic since Turkey-Israel-Egypt relations were manageable. Today, Israel-Turkey relations do not seem to be bridgeable, at least in the medium term, with the Israelis logically not looking favourably on the normalisation of Cyprus-Turkey relations either. Cyprus is gradually becoming an economic and military base for the state of Israel, while Nicosia has yet to accurately assess the pros and cons.
Comparison
Some wonder when the region’s problems were easier to solve? In 2014 or today, in 2024?
In 2014, the problems could have been viewed and smoothed out through synergies mainly in the economy and through the exploitation of the economic interests involved, with natural gas as the catalyst. Logically in 2014, the American approach was more economic-geopolitical. In 2024, there is still a strong economic dimension, but due to political volatility in the Middle East and in the midst of two wars the approach has also become highly geostrategic. Turkey’s decision to maintain a neutral stance on Ukraine, to support the terrorist Hamas in Gaza, to move coercively towards the BRICS has made it an unpredictable, if not unreliable member of NATO and the West in general. This first gave Greece the opportunity to strengthen its position and then Cyprus to consider itself geopolitically and especially geostrategically upgraded. British bases are operating in Cyprus, there is an American heliport, a naval station is being prepared in Mari, an attempt will be made to upgrade the port of Larnaca so that part of the American and French fleets in the eastern Mediterranean can be moored there, while the Andreas Papandreou Air Base is always at the disposal of the USA, France and, of course, Greece. The Republic of Cyprus is also, whenever deemed necessary, turned into a firing range and training ground for the Israeli army.
Complexity
Will this new order of things facilitate or create additional problems in the resolution of the Cyprus problem?
If the American moves are aimed at permanent use of Cyprus as a military base for control of the Middle East, then one should await Turkey’s response with interest. And a week after Christodoulides’ visit to Washington, it has yet to comment. What is Ankara’s evaluation? On the other hand, the Greek Prime Minister, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, made a statement last Thursday after the meeting with President Christodoulides that highlights the complexity of the problem, while emphasising the optimistic side of things. As he said, “from a position of international inertia, Cyprus and the resolution of the Cyprus issue are now treated as part of a solution in the equation of the most sensitive region on the world map and this change of perspective can, I hope, also materialise into a turning of the page.”
May this be the case, although it is imperative to note some obvious things. The prospects for a solution to the Cyprus problem exist, despite the failed attempts in 2004 and 2017. It is clear that the problem cannot be solved with wishes. It is clear as daylight that each new attempt at a solution increases its complexity index. Each time requires a greater effort, more thought and more patience to approach the problem.
Source: THE PRESIDENT’S VISIT AND THE COMPLEXITY INDEX OF THE CYPRUS PROBLEM
