By This post is also available in: ΕΛΛΗΝΙΚΑ (GREEK) TÜRKÇE (TURKISH)
The UN Secretary General’s office finally contacted the leaders on the island last evening and informed the parties about the informal 5+1 conference to be held in Geneva on 17-18 March. It was also noted that the official invitation and announcement of the UN will be issued this week.
Although it has not been officially announced yet, according to the information I received, the summit will start in the evening of 17 March and will end in the afternoon of the following day.
The summit will most probably be held at the Palace of Nations in Geneva. Some additional meetings are expected to be held in the hotels where the delegations will stay.
The summit, which will be chaired by UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, is considered to be quite critical as the first step towards a solution by higher-echelons after four years.
As previously announced, apart from the Turkish and Greek Cypriot sides, the three guarantors of the island, Turkey, Greece and the UK will also participate in the summit at the ministerial level.
In line with this, the Turkish side is expected to be represented by Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, the Greek side by Foreign Minister Yorgos Yerapetridis and the British side by Deputy Foreign Secretary Stephen Dougthy.
On the other hand, President Nicos Christodoulides will attend the summit with a large delegation. Christodoulidis plans to take representatives from all parties and even party leaders to the summit. On the other hand, it is not yet known whether the Turkish Cypriot side will have an opportunity as such at their disposal.
Again, while the Greek Cypriot leader announced at an event he attended on the weekend that they will go to Geneva with great earnestness and hope, he also emphasized that they will do their best to come out of the summit with a ‘positive result’.
Referring to the statement made by the President of the European Council Antonio Costa last week on Turkey, Christodoulides said: “President of the European Council, Costa, had a telephone conversation with Erdoğan. They discussed three issues. The Syrian problem, developments in Ukraine and the Cyprus problem. In his statement, Costa also said that he supports the initiative taken by Guterres. The EU is ready to strengthen Turkey’s ties with the EU. I am personally aware of this. It is therefore up to Turkey whether there will be positive developments, or not.”
Actually, it would be more meaningful to read Costa’s statement together with President Erdoğan’s statement last week where he said, “Only Turkey and Turkey’s full membership can save the European Union from the deadlock it has fallen into from economy to defense, and from politics to international reputation.”
This is because the EU has fallen into a great deadlock in the fast-moving war between Ukraine and Russia.
Especially following the scandal that took place in the Oval Office last Friday for all the world to see, the EU and the US have reached the point of confrontation.
Indeed, after the summit held in London on Sunday night and attended by NATO President Rutte and Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan—where statements were made and a photo was distributed to the press—EU’s policy regarding Ukraine has completely diverged with that of the US and a serious security problem has emerged.
Additionally, the EU has started to establish its own defense mechanism in order to put an end to its long-standing dependence on NATO, and is now working for an umbrella structure with the UK in the West and Turkey in the East. This is what is coded in Costa’s statement.
In this context, Erdoğan’s statement along the lines of “we can be the panacea for EU’s troubles” is an emphasis on security rather than economy.
At this point, the EU is in need of Turkey for security reasons. Just as it was in need, in the past, for stopping the refugee flow and took steps in this direction, new steps are now needed for the security issue.
However, in order for these steps to be taken, or for Turkey-EU relations to become healthier in a broader framework, the Cyprus problem must somehow be left behind.
Because it is not possible for Turkey and the EU to establish a healthy relationship while the Cyprus issue remains unsettled.
Of course, at this point, I would like to remind that it takes two to tango.
Perhaps Christodoulides’ statement that “Turkey is the key to a positive outcome”, which I quoted above, may be true to some extent. However, this can only be achieved if Turkey gets what it wants.
So, what does Turkey want?
It wants to be a part of the Eastern Mediterranean energy equation. In this context, it wants the Eastern Mediterranean gas to be transported through Turkey, which is undeniably the most rational formula in terms of logic, finances and geographical facts.
Turkey also wants the Customs Union agreement to be updated and vital issues such as visa liberalisation to be resolved. And believe me, one of the biggest obstacles to these demands is the Cyprus problem itself.
In short, the 17-18 March summit is an extremely critical summit, an international summit, not only regarding the Cyprus problem, but also regarding the Eastern Mediterranean gas issue and Turkey-EU relations in general.
So, what is expected from this summit?
As an article by Kostas Venizelos in Filelefteros suggests—published on the weekend—we are faced with four different scenarios.
Accordingly, the first scenario envisages that the current status quo will be preserved, but the process will continue with a number of technical contacts without declaring a non-solution. A result we do not want at all!
According to the second and fantastic scenario, Guterres will declare non-solution after the failed summit and take the issue to the UN Security Council. When the issue goes there, Turkey will press the button and take action to change UN Resolution 186 of 4 March 1964, which reinforces that the Greeks are the official representatives of the island. Venizelos described this as ‘Turkey’s preferred move’, but I give it zero possibility.
The third scenario is that following the collapse of the summit, Guterres will call on the parties for a ‘reflection period’ and leave the issue until after the Turkish Cypriot leadership election in October. In other words, we are talking about the possibility of a more moderate candidate being elected.
Of course, it is important that a more moderate candidate than Tatar is elected, but in my opinion this is not a vital development because I think that even if the most peaceful person in the world comes, the key will still be in the hands of Turkey and other major actors.
According to the final scenario, in Maria Holguin’s report, which she wrote in the aftermath of her visit to the island in the first half of last year—but no one has seen—it is thought that a number of Confidence Building Measures (CPM) may come to the table in order to establish the ground that seems non-existent between the parties.
I cannot help but wonder if the proposal of direct flights to Ercan in return of Varosha—proposed by the then president Nikos Anastasiades but rejected by the Turkish side during the last Geneva summit in April 2021—may come back to the table. If it does, I honestly do not know what the answer will be this time.
Another CPM may be the joint committee on Natural Gas, which was proposed by the Turkish Cypriot side during the Mustafa Akıncı period, but we will only be able to understand all these at the summit.
Long story short, exactly four years after 2021, we are once again on the road for hope.
There is no point in being gloomy, this is an international summit.
And the Cyprus problem can only be solved on such a platform. Just this, on its own, is enough for feeling hopeful…
This article was first published on 04.04.2025
Source: GENEVA, SCENARIOS, FEARS AND HOPES…
