By ΕΛΛΗΝΙΚΑ (GREEK) TÜRKÇE (TURKISH)
…the Five-Party Conference will either be the starting point for a new course and effort on the Cyprus problem or it will confirm another deadlock. Since it will determine the two key issues, first whether Ankara agrees to the abolition of Guarantees and withdrawal of the army and secondly whether Ankara insists on ‘sovereign equality’ i.e. the veiled two-state solution…
Things seem to be moving along… albeit reluctantly. Slowly and cautiously, but the signs are there and indicate or rather predict that there will be developments that will either ‘awaken’ the Cyprus problem process or confirm a new deadlock due to Ankara’s positions.
The other day it became known that the UN Secretary General received the ‘OK’ from all parties involved to convene a Conference on the Cyprus problem. And when we refer to the ‘parties involved’ we mean none other than Greece, Turkey and Britain in addition to the two parties in Cyprus.
Athens’ position was and is known anyway, as is London’s position. What was pending was whether Ankara would say ‘yes’ to a Conference, in which de facto the most thorny issue of the Cyprus problem, which is the ‘Guarantees and Security’ chapter, will be put on the table.
As we all know, in all previous talks Ankara was adamant on its position about the abolition of Guarantees and the withdrawal of the Turkish Army, and as everyone will remember, Turkey’s approach to the whole issue could be traced back to the then Turkish Foreign Minister’s statement in Crans-Montana that the Greek Cypriots can ‘keep dreaming’ that Guarantees would be abolished and the Turkish Army withdrawn.
So the grey area is this: How and why did Ankara accept a Conference where it is expected that it will have to position itself anew on an issue on which it has been and remains adamant? In other words, why did it accept to take this big test? Because such a Conference is a test for Ankara itself.
This could mean two things:
First, that Ankara will go to the Conference to insist on its position, namely that it does not accept any abolition of guarantees or withdrawal of Turkish troops from Cyprus, or
Second, that Ankara will go to the Conference and appear ready to ‘trade’ the issue of the abolition of guarantees and withdrawal of the army for something else. Apparently it will demand (again) ‘Sovereign Equality’.
A third scenario could be that Ankara accepts the abolition of Guarantees and withdrawal of the army without any serious and special trade-off, something which, while a possibility, in political reality seems quite unlikely to happen.
But whichever of the two ‘most likely’ possibilities is true, the course of action ahead looks particularly difficult. On the one hand, it is clear that a solution with the continuation of Turkish guarantees cannot be accepted by the Greek Cypriot side. On the other hand, no President of the Republic will accept ‘sovereign equality’ which refers to a Confederation and a veiled two-state solution.
The only positive thing – no matter how much weight it carries – is that all five permanent members of the Security Council have made it clear that a two-state solution is out of the question. The Secretary-General made the same clear to Ersin Tatar at the informal dinner on 15 October. However, Hakan Fidan in his statements at the end of the 8 November meeting in Athens with his Greek counterpart, spoke of ‘realities on the island’ and that it is ‘clear a Federation solution on the island cannot exist’.
Which reveals that Ankara – at least publicly – is insisting on a two-state solution or a Confederal solution that would later allow – at the first difficulty and/or opportunity – secession and the creation of two states.
We have said it before, but let us repeat that the essential difference between a Federation and a Confederation concerns three issues: 1/ In a Confederation, the Communities / Statelets / Cantons / States have the right of secession (thus the Sovereign Equality of the constituent parties is recognised); 2/ The Communities / Statelets / Cantons / States are granted the right to develop defensive actions and/or relations with other States independently of the Central State; 3/ The Communities / Statelets / Cantons / States are granted the right to develop diplomatic relations with other States independently of the Central State. Whichever of the above three is present in a solution, then that solution cannot be called a Federation.
In conclusion, the Five-Party Conference will either be the starting point for a new course and effort on the Cyprus problem or it will confirm another deadlock. Since it will determine the two key issues, first whether Ankara agrees to the abolition of Guarantees and withdrawal of the army and secondly whether Ankara insists on ‘sovereign equality’, i.e. the veiled two-state solution…
Source: ANKARA SAID OK FOR A FIVE-PARTY CONFERENCE, BUT WHAT WILL IT SAY AT THE TABLE…
