GUARANTEES, LIES AND TRUTHS…

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The remarks made by the President of the Republic of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, on the flight back from Qatar the other day regarding the elections in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) have sparked debate. While these remarks have had varying effects and reactions in different circles, certain historical facts on the island of Cyprus are part of international law in written form. Therefore, they cannot be changed by words, even if desired.

However, let us first put the relevant section of the news from Anadolu Agency (AA) here:

“In response to the question, ‘There will be a presidential election in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus in October. How do you assess whether the election results pose risks to Turkey’s gains and claims in the Eastern Mediterranean?’, Erdoğan stated that the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus would hold its elections under the supervision of its independent judiciary as a sovereign state.

“The Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus is our brother. We regard the rights and interests of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus as our own rights and interests. We will not allow anyone to interfere with them,“ said Erdoğan, emphasising that Turkey possesses guarantor rights that are legitimately recognised under international law and United Nations resolutions.

Erdoğan noted that these rights guarantee the existence of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus and its maritime jurisdiction in the Eastern Mediterranean, regardless of which political party comes to power.

Erdoğan pointed out that Cyprus had been a playground for regional and global powers for years, stating that recent history had shown just how bloody these games could be.

Erdoğan said, “No one should play games that will cause new sufferings on the island of Cyprus. Neither we nor the Turkish Cypriot people have forgotten what we have been through. Our memories are still fresh with pain. No one can make Turkish Cypriots suffer similar pain again; we will not allow it. I wish the elections in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus well.”

Now we can move on to my comments on the news and assess the comments made.

For example, what did I understand?

President Erdoğan has explicitly emphasised international law and UN resolutions when referring to Turkey’s right of guarantee. He states that this is a legitimate position. In this context, I would like to point out that this question was not improvised, but rather that this message has essentially been put forward.

Furthermore, his statement that ‘these rights guarantee the existence of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus and its maritime jurisdiction in the Eastern Mediterranean, regardless of which political party comes to power’ emphasises that there is no room for debate as long as the current situation on the island of Cyprus remains unchanged.

Indeed, the Security and Guarantees chapter is one of the six chapters of the settlement negotiations. In my view, it is the most critical one, along with the Governance and Power Sharing chapter.

As I have repeatedly stated and written before, these two chapters are the core of the main bargaining or give-and-take.

Don’t get me wrong, of course territory and property are also part of the negotiations, but the main debate revolves around these two chapters.

But leaving that aside, if we look at how President Erdoğan’s words resonate here, we see differences.

To begin with the shortest, these words were interpreted by Tufan Erhürman‘s supporters as ‘Turkey won’t care who is elected, so our path is clear.’

This is partly true, but in my opinion, it is a superficial comment, because Erdoğan spoke without taking the Guarantee and Alliance agreements signed by Turkey into consideration, it’s that simple.

Moreover, both his deputy, Cevdet Yılmaz, and the Speaker of the Grand National Assembly, Numan Kurtulmuş, strongly and openly supported the two-state solution at meetings held with mukhtars brought to Ankara from the TRNC for influencing the perceptions.

In this situation, I cannot determine whether the path is clear for CTP candidate Erhürman or not. If Turkey insists on this policy, it remains unclear what persuasion strategy Erhürman would adopt if he were elected. Time will reveal the answers to these questions.

However, it is possible to say that the statements were received more enthusiastically on the right wing. More accurately, as a kind of “assist” that would bring the old rhetorics of jingoism back to the agenda!

For example, Prime Minister Ünal Üstel, who is not at all competent on the Cyprus issue, combined the statements of Erdoğan and other officials and said, ‘A two-state solution equals guarantees,’ and then continued with his eloquent Turkish, ‘Federation means no guarantees.’

Efforts to make people forget that Turkey is the guarantor of the entire Republic of Cyprus and to portray it as the guarantor of only the TRNC have gained considerable momentum in recent years. However, these efforts come up against the well-known agreement signed in 1959.

Accordingly, the response of Mustafa Akıncı, the last elected leader of the Turkish Cypriots, to this statement is as follows: “Should those who claim to govern the Turkish Cypriot community andsay that “guarantee means two states” take the trouble of taking a look at the guarantee agreement, they would understand that the situation is exactly the opposite. If they read it, they will see that the guarantee covers Cyprus’s independence, territorial integrity and constitutional order. Therefore, these words are either the outcome of ignorance or a distortion for election purposes. In both cases, this needs to be corrected. Election periods should be seen as a process of enlightenment for the society, not deception.”

As Mr Akıncı said in his last sentence, elections in this territory are a period used to deceive people, not to enlighten them!

Similarly, researcher and writer Mete Hatay, who was a guest on my programme yesterday, responded to the Prime Minister’s remarks by saying, “The two-state solution itself is to actuallyrelinquish the guarantor rights over the entire island. Moreover, it is to relinquish the rights over the seas in the southern part of the island. Those who advocate this are not aware of what they are asking for.”

To be honest, while I agree with Mete Hatay, I actually think they are aware of it. Because the general mindset behind this mentality is an expansionist, superior, hostile way of thinking that goes, “What’s mine is mine; what belongs to the Greek Cypriots is also mine.”

The notion that “federation means absence of guarantees” is also incorrect, because one of the fundamental elements of the Cyprus problem settlement negotiations is “a new mechanism that will address the security concerns of both sides”. Anything contrary to this is impossible to implement.

The first article of the Guterres Document presented at Crans Montana, the most recent substantive negotiation on the Cyprus issue, touches precisely on this subject.

There, the Secretary-General refers to a new system with the statement, ‘a guarantee system involving unilateral intervention is outdated.’

Turkey and the other guarantor powers brought this issue to the table there. Turkey surprised the entire world by talking about withdrawing its troops. These are unprecedented developments in history.

Despite this, the Greek Cypriot leader at the time, Nikos Anastasiadis, took the slogan “zero troops, zero guarantees” as the starting point for negotiations, and ultimately the talks collapsed because of this.

Representatives of the right wing attempted to bury the Guterres Document by presenting Anastasiadis’s slogan as its content, but we all know that this is a distortion. There is no such thing in that document!

Ultimately, no matter what anyone says, no matter how anyone behaves or what they claim, if there is to be a solution in Cyprus, it will include a new security mechanism. Establishing this mechanism without Turkey is impossible. Erdoğan’s words actually foreshadow this direction to some extent.

However, the greatest tool of distortion used by those defending the status quo through jingoism is to create fear and paranoia around people’s security concerns.

With just one month to go before the elections, the agenda has reverted to the same old, familiarjingoism rhetorics, precisely because these circles have no rational policy or vision to offer.

Rest assured, in the coming days, not only guarantees but also territory will be on the agenda. The same circles will accuse the Erhürman front of “giving away our land” also by bringing up the map presented by Mustafa Akıncı during the Crans Montana process within Turkey’s knowledge.