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The elections in the Turkish Cypriot community on 19 October represent one of the most decisive moments for the course of the Cyprus problem. At the ballot box, Turkish Cypriots are being asked to choose between two entirely different visions for the future: on the one hand, Tufan Erhürman, who declares himself ready to bring the federation back to the centre of negotiations; on the other, the current leader, Ersin Tatar, who expresses in the clearest possible terms the two-state strategy.
This decision, beyond its internal dimension, directly concerns the Greek Cypriot side as well. If Erhürman wins, the Christodoulides presidency will be called upon to abandon the easy path of denunciations and answer clearly whether it is prepared to return to UN parameters and fully accept the political equality of Turkish Cypriots. Or will it, once again, expend itself on tactical manoeuvring, allowing time to entrench partition?
Herein lies the crux of the problem: the Greek Cypriot leadership has grown comfortable with the ease afforded by Tatar’s intransigent line. As long as the Turkish Cypriot leader demands formal recognition of the pseudo-state, Nicosia has an easy job:
It denounces, rejects, and assigns blame to the Turkish side and maintains the political stagnation that serves its domestic audience—rejectionism.
But if it finds itself facing an Erhürman who speaks the language of the UN, who places federation as the basis and claims political equality without preconditions, then Christodoulides will be forced to reveal himself. He will have to answer:
– whether he truly desires a solution on the basis of a Bizonal Bicommunal Federation (BBF) with political equality;
– whether he truly accepts the continuation of negotiations from the point where they were interrupted;
– whether he accepts the Guterres Framework without conditions and asterisks, or
– whether he prefers the interminable management of Cyprus’s de facto partition.
The dilemma facing Turkish Cypriots is clear:
Either they will vote for Ersin Tatar, in which case stagnation on the Cyprus issue will remain. Turkish Cypriots will continue to find themselves in international isolation. A separate Turkish Cypriot state will never be recognised, not even by Azerbaijan (where even Turkey doesn’t dare to have a football match with the Turkish Cypriots, as Mustafa Akıncı denounced many times). Young people will continue to emigrate. Wretched Turks from Turkey will continue to flood occupied Cyprus. Northern Cyprus will evolve into a permanent dependency of Turkey, without whose help it cannot stand on its own two feet.
Or they will vote for Tufan Erhürman, in which case the Cyprus issue will be led towards a definitive settlement. If Erhürman manages to drag Christodoulides into a solution, then Turkish Cypriots will be reintegrated into a united Republic of Cyprus, with political equality, sufficient autonomy to control their own affairs, will be reintegrated into the international community, and will acquire 100% the status of European citizen. If he fails to drag Christodoulides into a solution and remains consistent with the policy he proclaims, then the Turkish Cypriot community will metamorphose into a Taiwan of the Mediterranean. It will not receive diplomatic recognition from the international community, but it will enjoy all the substantive advantages of commercial and economic connections with the world, retaining the entire Cypriot territory currently occupied by Turkish troops without giving any quid pro quo to Greek Cypriots. If Erhürman remains consistent with his policy and Christodoulides persists in his own negativism, then Greek Cypriots will lose everything.
In the hands of Turkish Cypriot voters, therefore, lies, at this moment, the future of our island, our common homeland.
This article was first published on 08.10.2025
