By This post is also available in: ΕΛΛΗΝΙΚΑ (GREEK) TÜRKÇE (TURKISH)
Will another attempt end before it begins due to Ankara’s “two states” demand based on “sovereign equality”?
Limited prospects are expected for the five-party conference in Geneva, Switzerland, scheduled for March 17 and 18 (though the date remains officially unconfirmed).
The Turkish side has made clear at every opportunity that they will reintroduce their position for two separate states at the five-party conference. This stance has been consistently communicated—whether directly by Ersin Tatar to the UN Assistant Secretary-General, by the Turkish Foreign Minister to his Greek counterpart, or by officials in Ankara during meetings with Rosemary DiCarlo.
This position is unlikely to change. While the five-party talks will likely proceed, they face minimal prospects for “success”.
But what constitutes “success”? We find ourselves at a point where each side has diametrically opposed views on what “success” means.
Our side, for example, considers “success” to be two things:
First, restarting negotiations within the Guterres six-point. Negotiations, not on areas where agreements have been recorded, but rather on those points where the UN Secretary-General himself noted disagreements or different approaches between the two sides.
Second, overcoming the Turkish position that insists on Turkish guarantees and military presence, moving instead toward “Zero Guarantees, Zero Troops”.
The Turkish side, however, considers “success” to be injecting “Sovereign Equality” into the Negotiations—a key component for Confederation and two states.
As it appears, the Turkish side is unwilling to change course on the Cyprus problem or remove the “two-state solution” from its agenda.
We wrote previously that should the five-party conference take place, it would serve as a “test” of Ankara’s genuine intentions regarding Cyprus.
Typically, Turkish diplomacy in official negotiations maintains what it also advocates publicly. There have been exceptions, such as in 2003 regarding the arbitration issue.
Consequently, the five-party conference will reveal and officially document Ankara’s position—both on whether it insists on a two-state solution (either directly or through “sovereign equality”) and the crucial issue of Guarantees; whether it maintains its position on Turkish Military presence and Guarantees even after a solution, or whether it agrees with Greece and Britain on “Zero Troops and Zero Guarantees”.
Let us not forget though that the “roadmap” set by the Secretary-General on October 15, 2024, has failed. During the trilateral meeting in New York, A. Guterres gave the two leaders a very specific “task”: to return to Cyprus and meet to decide on opening checkpoints—a “job” considered “preliminary work” for the five-party conference that would follow.
The two leaders returned, and met regarding the Checkpoints, but even in this “preliminary work”, the Turkish side proved intransigent. They failed to agree on opening checkpoints (at least thus far).
In conclusion, one might justifiably think: Tatar and Ankara are playing games even regarding checkpoint openings, would they ever accept a solution with zero guarantees and zero military presence?
And three postscripts regarding DISY:
PS1: DISY’s decision for its 50,000 members to select a presidential candidate is correct.
PS2: Term limits. That would have been right if they had voted to abolish limits for everyone. Maintaining limits for everyone is also correct. It would have been wrong to vote for an exception only for leadership—either all or none.
PS3: Ministerial Expulsions. The decision is flawed. I won’t say these should have happened two years ago rather than now. But substantively, the Expulsions should have applied either to all DISY members appointed by President Christodoulides or to none at all. That is, all DISY members appointed (or to be appointed in future) by President Christodoulides—whether as Commissioners, Chairpersons or board members of semi-governmental organisations—are acceptable, but those appointed as Ministers are expelled? These are political shenanigans!
This article was originally published on 16.02.2025
Source: WHAT WILL ANKARA TELL US AT THE FIVE-PARTY CONFERENCE? TWO STATES? (AND 3 POSTSCRIPTS ON DISY)
