By ΕΛΛΗΝΙΚΑ (GREEK) TÜRKÇE (TURKISH)
Foresight, and especially political foresight, is not an abstract concept without content, but an inherent characteristic of political praxis, especially for issues of ethnic -and not only- conflicts. The circumstances and protagonists change, but the unresolved issues are still there.
Of course, the Cyprus problem is placed within this context and one of the major problems of the Greek Cypriot leadership in the last decade, apart from personal ambitions and interests, has been precisely the absence of this foresight, or at least the simple logical notion that each time the train leaves, it always travels to a different destination than the last.
As far as the main protagonists in the Cyprus problem are concerned, nothing is the same. Akinci is in the past and unfortunately the current Turkish Cypriot leader is following the established two-state line. Erdogan remains in his place, Kyriakos Mitsotakis has taken the place of Alexis Tsipras, while Nikos Christodoulides has picked up the baton from Nicos Anastasiades, essentially following the same political approach.
It is not only the change of persons, but also the circumstances that influence each process. Since 2016 onwards, the refugee crisis has radically changed the facts, it has brought down governments and raised the far-right to a dangerous level. However, as far as we and the Cyprus problem are concerned, it has changed Ankara’s relationship with the European Union, as Tayyip Erdogan can now handle and manage the issue exactly as he wants. As can be understood, the pressure has switched sides, with the EU providing billions to Turkey over refugee flows (the EU is under pressure from the far right) and therefore the argument that Europe is putting political pressure on Ankara to solve the Cyprus problem does not hold.
This is where the issue of foresight comes into play, since the rapid changes in the geopolitical scene radically shift the balance of power and whoever lags behind… is left behind. Of course, we must not forget that the Greek Cypriot leadership has been moving slowly on this for more than a decade now, for well-known reasons that will haunt us like ghosts. Changes on the international scene are irreversible and the protagonists must understand this. Especially on the Greek Cypriot side.
Source: CYPRUS PROBLEM: THE PLAYERS HAVE CHANGED, CIRCUMSTANCES HAVE ALSO CHANGED
