By ΕΛΛΗΝΙΚΑ (GREEK) TÜRKÇE (TURKISH)
Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis is arriving in Cyprus today. The visit, which was expected to take place last Wednesday, was postponed to today due to devastating fire disasters that hit Greece, especially Rhodes and other larger and smaller islands. Through this article, I would like to wish the Greek people a speedy recovery.
Meanwhile, Mitsotakis is visiting the island in a politically comfortable and strong position after he won twice the number of votes of his main rival, Syriza, in the elections held last month. Just like Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, with whom he had a “very good meeting” at the NATO summit in Vilnius earlier this month.
If you look at the history of Turkish-Greek relations, you won’t come across much the phrase “very good” in the mutual statements made after meetings. However, I think it wouldn’t be a wrong assessment to say that while this meeting inspired this rare political occurrence it also seems to have brought a “spring breeze” to the two “motherlands” of the island after a long period of tension.
During that meeting, the two leaders, who emerged from recent elections as strong victorious commanders, discussed cooperation in both the Aegean and the Eastern Mediterranean beyond the traditional Turkish-Greek tensions, agreeing to accelerate the ongoing consultative talks, which is why the messages to be delivered by Mitsotakis who will be on the island today are significant in this context.
Let me open a parenthesis here: looking at Erdoğan’s harsh speech, upon his visit to the island 10 days ago at the official parade on July 20, it’s likely that Mitsotakis will respond in a similarly harsh tone. However, if Mitsotakis takes into account the statements Erdogan made in Turkey after that visit, particularly his remarks after the Cabinet meeting the other day: “We will take on responsibility for a solution, just like we did in the Annan Plan,” a similar message might come out.
Closing the parenthesis, Mitsotakis will be received by the President of the Republic of Cyprus, Nikos Christodoulides, around noon. After the meeting, the two leaders will probably hold a joint press conference.
Like Mitsotakis and Erdoğan, the Greek Cypriot leader also stands in the equation with a firm hand as the winner of the recent elections. Moreover, since he took office in February, he has been on a tremendous diplomatic offensive. First through the EU and then through the UN, he has been conducting effective diplomacy, especially with assertive figures in his cabinet, such as the new Foreign Minister Konstantinos Kombos with a very good CV. At the very least, Christodoulides has achieved this: we are discussing the appointment of a special representative for the Cyprus problem by both the UN and the EU for the first time in the history of the Cyprus issue.
The current situation has put pressure on the Turkish Cypriot side, which insists on a two-state solution stating, “We will not sit at the table if our equal sovereignty is not recognized. Therefore, it is unnecessary to appoint a representative without accepting this condition.” Because the Turkish Cypriot side also opposes the appointment of an EU representative, arguing that “Cyprus and Greece are EU members, and therefore the EU is biased,” which is not a good thing.
As a result, this situation poses significant challenges for Turkey, which attaches great importance to updating the Customs Union and obtaining visa liberalization, both of which are essential economically. Therefore, Christodoulides’ success in involving the EU, which was somewhat reluctant to undertake this direct mediation task, and creating a debate on appointing a special representative seems to have at least opened the path for Secretary-General Antonio Guterres to accept the appointment of a special representative, hence there have been reports and articles in this regard.
While all these developments are taking place and messages are flying in the air, an important meeting also took place on the island. Ersin Tatar and Nikos Christodoulides visited the Committee on Missing Persons’ (CMP) laboratory last Friday. During the meeting, the two leaders looked friendly, and diplomatic circles, especially the EU and the UN, regarded it as an ‘important first step towards the start of the solution process.’ I too, as an ‘optimist with good intentions’ want to agree with this, but I promised not to fire the first bullet, so I am trying to remain somewhat indifferent.
Before turning to the statements made by the Greek Cypriot leader after the meeting, apparently, Ersin Tatar who also does not want people like me to ‘raise their hopes’, immediately after the meeting, issued three separate statements one after the other, to try to break the positive perceptions that emerged. The first right after the meeting, the second the next day and the third in the evening of the next day. The common theme of all these statements was: “This meeting was a humanitarian one, and it is wrong for the Greeks Cypriots and others to imply that it is the ‘first step of the process’ and we will not participate if our sovereign equality is not accepted.”
Tatar who found some room for manoeuvre along with Kudret Özersay’s lifesaving statement, “You posed in front of the remains of the missing persons at the CMP, it hurts me”, is in a difficult spot for sure. After Özersay’s statement which I found to be completely unnecessary, Tatar’s office might have been successful in making everyone forget the issue of what was discussed during the meeting by serving photos of previous meetings of the leaders (Akıncı-Anastasiadis, Desmond Tutu, etc.) to the press. Since our Main Opposition party, which is the ‘driving force of a solution,’ is engulfed in the problems of the TRNC and has become unqualified regarding the Cyprus issue, we learn of the meeting’s developments – that did not attract too much attention – from sources in the Greek Cypriot press. Thank you.
Last week, at the event where our Special Representative Ergün Olgun, who had ‘retired due to old age’ but miraculously felt rejuvenated and returned this week, made an appearance, two things stood out.
The first was the proposal made by Christodoulides to Tatar, for the establishment of a Truth Commission, which has been a subject of discussion for a long time. According to claims in the Greek Cypriot press, the response to this proposal came not from Tatar but Ergün Olgun. The rumour brought back memories of the once-heated dispute between Derviş Eroğlu and Osman Ertuğ. Allegedly, following the proposal, Ergün Olgun intervened before Tatar could respond and said, “This can only be evaluated after a solution,” meaning he rejected it. Of course, considering the conspiracy theories surrounding Olgun’s departure from office and surprise return, his move is not pleasant in diplomatic terms. However, it can be somewhat justified that Olgun, who has much experience regarding the process compared to Tatar, foresaw the complications that a ‘yes’ or ‘no’ response would create and chose to use diplomatic language.
In any case, getting fully informed on the mutual murders, which is the fundamental source of hostility between the two communities on the island, and holding the perpetrators accountable to justice is more important than any political solution to be found on paper. We call this the process of building peace, and although there may be some bad examples in the world, I want to emphasize that such a commission is highly important (and necessary).
Turning back to the CMP visit, the second significant development is again the proposal made by Christodoulides for a tripartite summit with Guterres’ participation during the annual UN meetings in New York in September. The Greek Cypriot press reports that Tatar accepted this proposal. Both matters have been reflected in the media, and there has been no denial or confirmation from Tatar. Thus, we assume that both issues are correct.
In summary, we are facing two critical developments: 1) The UN is preparing to appoint a special representative at the beginning of September. 2) Probably in the last days of September, a tripartite summit involving Guterres, Tatar, and Christodoulides will take place on the 38th floor of the UN Headquarters.
In short, at the end of my article, I can’t help making some historical remarks that have become tiresome to write and probably tiresome to read for you.
If we were to summarize, there is significant activity regarding the Cyprus issue both in front of and behind the scenes. At least according to sources I trust, we are on the verge of significant events. Yes, I know I may have implied ‘I am not hopeful’ above, but upon reading the article again and again for corrections, I can’t help feeling the need to indulge myself a bit.
In conclusion, we entered a very critical period concerning Turkey’s relations with the EU, given the massive economic crisis it is grappling with and the significant dynamics taking place in the Eastern Mediterranean, NATO, the Russia-Ukraine war, as well as developments involving the UK, the US, and the EU.
Following the 2020 period, during which the Turkish Cypriot side seems to have taken a backseat, losing prominence, the events that will unfold and the potential good and bad scenarios can have significant consequences not only for our future but also for the future of our children.
Source: ONCE AGAIN, THE SAME SONG ON THE CYPRUS ISSUE: “COME IN SEPTEMBER…”
