By ΕΛΛΗΝΙΚΑ (GREEK) TÜRKÇE (TURKISH)
In my column the other day, I evaluated the May 14-28 elections and examined what has happened during the process in general.
In this article, however, I will try to examine the effects of the Turkish elections on the Cyprus issue, also by looking at some clues.
As you know, the Cyprus issue is a National Cause for a significant majority of those involved in Turkish politics. To put it more strongly, beyond the polarization seen in the recent election period, it is perhaps the only issue on which polarized parties can agree.
On the other hand, the Cyprus issue has not come up much nor has it been the subject of much debate throughout the entire election period. It only came up a few times on the AKP’s [Justice and Development Party] agenda, where the emphasis was placed on a two-state solution, keeping the nationalist-conservative voters at ease. The alliance called the Table of Six also included some things in their 264-page manifesto, such as ‘political-sovereign equality,’ that most people did not understand and just glossed over.
The candidate of the table of six, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, did mention, I guess, 1-2 times that Turkey and the TRNC would acquire a ‘dominant position in the Eastern Mediterranean’ implying that the pipeline would pass through Turkey.
Of course, Mr Kemal disregarded the fact that the first condition for the pipeline to pass through Turkey is reaching a solution on the island. Instead, he used these statements within a vague populist discourse. As you know, he does not support the federal solution formula in any way and claims that his party had written “Nationalism on the Five Finger [Pentadaktylos] Mountains” regarding the 1974 intervention, emphasizing that the problem was resolved that very same year.
Setting aside these statements, which are far from the realities, let’s take a look at the completed elections and what lies beyond.
With consecutive elections held in Turkey, Cyprus, and Greece, along with the new situation arising from the Russia-Ukraine war, Europe’s dependency on Russian gas, and the emerging new conjuncture, is there any hope for a federal solution to the Cyprus problem?
This is the very question that needs to be asked, and my answer, based on the statements made by the parties before the elections, is that I have observed a certain intention regarding this matter.
If we are to summarize the topics as we move along, it is possible to say that there have been some developments on three key issues or dimensions.
The first of these is Turkey’s proposal for an “Eastern Mediterranean Conference,” which was repeated two or three times at the highest level at the beginning of this year. Although the EU has not yet responded to this call made by President Erdoğan and then by Foreign Minister Çavuşoğlu, this does not mean that there will be no response. Because as we all know, there was an election process in between. Now that this process is completed, is there a possibility of holding such a conference?
I believe there is, and the statement made by the top official of the Italian company ENI, which operates in the waters off Cyprus and whose ships were previously chased by Turkish warships, just before the second round of the Turkish elections, is significant in every way.
To elaborate further, the remarks made by ENI’s CEO, Claudio Desclazi to the Greek newspaper Kathimerini that, “The implementation of the East-Med project is impossible without Turkey” is a very important message in every way. As you will remember there was a United States, which said in the midst of the year, “The East-Med project is not sustainable, and we do not support it.” In fact, this statement implied that the project would be shelved indefinitely.
So, why do you think Desclazi felt the need to remind us of this project that was considered “dead”?
If you ask me, it is impossible for international finance capital to consider a 2,200-kilometer project through the deepest waters of the Mediterranean, estimated to cost around $12-13bn, when there is the 80km pipeline option through Turkey. Therefore, the easiest route for the natural wealth to be extracted from the EEZs of countries in the region, namely Egypt, Israel, Lebanon, Cyprus, and even Libya, to reach continental Europe is undoubtedly through Turkey.
However, at this point, we must emphasize something that has remained “impossible” until now: the solution to the Cyprus problem!
Because in the midst of this entire Eastern Mediterranean equation, lies the island called Cyprus.
So, how will this work?
As you know, the Greek Cypriots elected a new leader at the beginning of this year: Nikos Christodoulides.
In considering the background of the new Greek Cypriot leader, we can look at his stance after being elected, as the second dimension of the matter, rather than focusing on his attitude in Crans-Montana.
Before Christodoulides, the Greek Cypriot leadership had always blamed Turkey for everything happening on the island and complained to every international institution they could find, expecting sanctions. Anastasiades, the most recent passenger on this caravan, continuously complained to the EU about Turkey’s “gunboat diplomacy” in Cyprus and sought sanctions within the corridors of Brussels. However, their greatest success in imposing sanctions was freezing the bank accounts of the captain of the Turkish vessel conducting seismic exploration in the region. Of course, it is ridiculous.
Christodoulides, who acted both as a spokesperson and as Foreign Minister while this policy was being implemented, upon assuming office, in an extremely rational political move, started taking political steps to encourage or motivate Turkey for a solution, rather than punishing it. The Greek Cypriot leader intends to urge the EU to take the initiative on the resolution of the Cyprus problem and ensure the appointment of a high-level European mediator for the solution. In my opinion, this is a groundbreaking step.
Within this context, Christodoulides, who visited Germany last week and met with Chancellor Scholz, received support for a federal solution, as reported in the media. However, another critical detail that came to light in the media is important in terms of demonstrating the potential for the EU to intervene in the Cyprus problem, (not only technically but also politically). During the visit, when asked by a German DW [Deutsche Welle] reporter, “What would you think about former German Chancellor Angela Merkel being appointed as an advisor or mediator for the Cyprus problem by the EU?” the Greek Cypriot leader gave a vague response, saying, “She is a very popular and respected leader, but the decision on this matter will be made by herself or the EU.” But one thing is clear: Merkel’s name was mentioned!
The mention of Merkel’s name in the interview is by no means a coincidence, considering her past visits to the island and her messages of peace while looking at North Nicosia from the balcony of the Ledra Palace Hotel!
In my opinion, the appointment of Merkel, who has always maintained a positive relationship with Erdoğan and gained his respect, who is a ‘go-getter’, to such a role would shatter the barometer of the solution! Whether this will happen or not will become clear in the coming period.
The third important aspect of the issue is the path Turkey will follow after the elections: West or East?
Some interpret Erdogan’s victory as a “win for Russia” and predict that Turkey will further lean towards Eurasia. In my opinion, considering the events that have unfolded (such as the S-400 issue, the Sochi summit, etc.), this argument may be partially true. Still, there is a limit to this drift, in my opinion.
Starting from the 1948 Marshall Plan, entering into NATO after the Korean War and turning towards Europe in the early 1960s, it is impossible for Turkey to completely turn its face to the East after 75 years. Especially considering the millions of expatriates living in Europe and the massive economic partnerships, my bold statement can be better interpreted. I haven’t even mentioned the sports, culture, and other social dependencies!
Certainly, Turkish Foreign policy plays its cards by using Turkey’s geostrategic and geopolitical importance that emerged once again after the Russian-Ukrainian war to protect its interests and pursue a balancing act. But ultimately, there will come a time when a decision will need to be made. In my opinion, Turkey’s direction may not be perfectly aligned, but it is towards the West, and it will continue to stay there.
As we reach the end of the column, you may have noticed that throughout the discussion of the dimensions of the issue, I have not mentioned the ‘Turkish Cypriot leadership’ or ‘leader’ or the name of any other politician even once.
Why? Because since 2020, the Turkish Cypriots have been removed from the equation and beyond being removed, as subjects, they have ‘lost’. To mention the lost or ineffective is simply a waste of space, so I am also saving space by not mentioning them…
It is bitter, but this is the truth…
Wrapping things up, yes, there are indeed certain expectations regarding the Cyprus issue. Colin Stewart, the Special Advisor to UN Secretary-General Guterres, mobilizing groups with capital on both sides of the island, as well as the UN sending high-level diplomats, have increased these expectations. The possibility of EU involvement is another factor that has raised expectations.
Now, what needs to be observed are the developments that are likely to occur within the Turkey-Republic of Cyprus-EU axis.
My inner voice tells me that this summer will be very hot in terms of political developments.
Let’s hope it won’t just be the summer heat that we will be feeling!
Kaynak: THE ELECTION IN TURKEY, HOPES FOR A SOLUTION AND A THREE-DIMENSIONAL EQUATION
